📊 Analysis Engine

🟡 WAIT FOR CONFIRMATION

Bias: Bullish but pattern confirmation pending

Trigger: Breakout > $443.11 upgrades to 🟢 BUY

Catalysts: Dividend Ex-Date (Sep 24) Product Event (Oct 15)

Fusion Confidence: 67.0% (Pattern 66.07000732421875% • ML 74.07000732421875% • Technical 9.07000732421875/15)

TSLA

$426.07

Tesla, Inc.

Last Updated: 09:44 UTC

Decision Zone

Current Price

$426.07

Tesla, Inc.

Fair Value

$418.0

2.0% premium

Risk Band

Moderate

Quality income play

Fusion Verdict

🟡 WAIT

Fusion 67.0% • Data Loading

Market Regime

📈 Bullish

Vol: 20.0%

Timing Window

Now Window

4.0d • 78.0%

📐 Bull Flag

85% confidence • DETECTED

Trigger

$436.54

Target 1

$506.09

Target 2

$549.07

Stop

$316.49

Expected

21d

Evidence Zone

Technical Cluster

📐 Pattern AI

85%

Bull Flag (D) — 85% conf

Trigger: Above $436.54

T1: $506.09, T2: $549.07

Bull Flag pattern with 85% confidence

📈 Technical Snapshot

A-

RSI: 71.0 ↑ • MACD: Bullish cross

MAs: Above 20/50 • Support: $404.77

Momentum constructive; buy-the-dip near 20-50MA.

🔁 Relative Strength

vs QQQ: Strong Outperform (1.438x)

Stock: 80.3% • QQQ: 25.4%

Strong tech outperformance.

🧪 Setup Performance

A-

Win Rate: 71.0% • Avg Gain: 4.1%

Median Hold: 12.0d • Max DD: -2.1%

Favourable skew with quick resolution.

🤖 ML Signal Forecast

7d: 66.0% ↗ • 21d: 61.0% ↗ • 60d: 56.0% ↔

Bias: Bullish • Confidence: High

Short-term upside odds improving.

Flow & Sentiment Cluster

🌊 Sentiment Proxy

EXTR

Score: 82.0 • EXTREME HOT

RSI: 86.0 • 3d: 1.06%

Net buying in blocks; shorts drifting lower.

📰 Market Sentiment

Analyst: 51.0% Buy • Retail: 51.0% bull

News: +0.1.0 (7d) • Social: +0.0.05

Constructive, not euphoric.

📉 Volatility Forecast

B+

HV(20d): 21.1% • HV(60d): 20.1%

Expected Move: ±0.9% / day

Calm tape supports staged entries.

Fundamental & Valuation Cluster

💰 Valuation Analysis

P/E (TTM): 20.1 • P/B: 2.3

Div Yield: 3.6% • Fair Value: $405.0

Slight premium to blended FV; yield cushions drawdowns.

🧮 Quant Composite

B+

Score: 66.0/100

Val 22.0 • Qual 15.0 • Growth 13.0 • Mom 15.0 • Regime 3.0

Quality-income tilt with improving momentum.

🏛️ Capital Structure

A-

ROE: 14.1% • D/E: 0.4

Cash/Debt: 2.2x • ROIC: 8.1%

Strong balance sheet with efficient capital allocation.

📥 Insider & Dividend

A-

Director Transactions (90d): Small net sell

Div Safety: A (coverage 1.3x)

Dividend well-covered; insider flows not material.

Risk Cluster

⚠️ Risk Assessment

Market 46.0%, Valuation 31.0%, Fundamentals 17.0%

Composite: 69.0/100 — Moderate

Macro/sector beta the key driver; valuation premium second.

🛰️ Risk Monitor Hooks

A-

Buffett Indicator: 136.1%

VIX: 17.1 • Market Regime: Neutral

Low-vol regime; breadth softening warrants vigilance.

🔥 Scenario Analysis

B+

Bear: $392.0 (20%) • Base: $430.0 (55%) • Bull: $477.0 (25%)

R:R: 1.9:1

Mildly asymmetric to upside if breadth stabilises.

Action Zone

Entry Zone

Pattern Trigger Zone

$436.54

Above breakout level

Position Size

2.0-3.0%

Entry Probability (3d)

30.0%

Historical R/R

1.9:1

Pattern Win Rate: 74.0%

Targets & Upside

Pattern Target 1

$506.09

18.8% upside

Pattern Target 2

$549.07

28.9% upside

Expected Timeframe

14.0-20.0 days

Risk Management

Pattern Stop

$316.49

Pattern invalidation

Max Risk

10.0%

Risk-Reward

1.9:1

📅 Upcoming Catalysts — 3 Events

2025-08-21.0

🔴 High

Q2 Earnings Release

Revenue, EPS, and forward guidance. Expected volatility: ±9.0%

2025-09-7.0

🟠 Medium

Sector Conference

Management presentation and Q&A. Potential guidance updates

2025-09-22.0

🟢 Low

Ex-Dividend Date

Quarterly dividend of $0.97. Price adjustment expected

Sector Context:

Sector 0.4% today • Avg Daily Volume: $226.0M • Last Updated: 2025-09-22 09:44 UTC