📊 Analysis Engine
Powered by Fusion Trade Engine™ • Last Updated: 2025-09-22 09:45 UTC
🟢 BUY
Bias: Bullish momentum with confirmed breakout
Trigger: Entry active above $183.74
Catalysts:
Dividend Ex-Date (Sep 24)
Product Event (Oct 15)
Fusion Confidence:
75.0%
(Pattern 86.66999816894531% • ML 79.66999816894531% • Technical 7.6699981689453125/15)
NVDA
$176.67
NVIDIA Corporation
Last Updated: 09:45 UTC
Decision Zone
Powered by Fusion Trade Engine™
Current Price
$176.67
NVIDIA Corporation
Fair Value
$173.0
2.0% premium
Risk Band
Moderate
Quality income play
Fusion Verdict
🟡 WAIT
Fusion 75.0% • Data Loading
Market Regime
📈 Bullish
Vol: 20.0%
Timing Window
Now Window
5.0d • 84.0%
📐 Ascending Triangle
70.0% confidence • DETECTED
Trigger
$186.3
Target 1
$198.91
Target 2
$206.7
Stop
$162.42
Expected
13d
Evidence Zone
Technical Cluster
📐 Pattern AI
70.0%
Ascending Triangle (D) — 70.0% conf
Trigger: Above $186.3
T1: $198.91, T2: $206.7
Ascending Triangle pattern with 70.0% confidence
📈 Technical Snapshot
A-
RSI: 62.0 ↑ • MACD: Bullish cross
MAs: Above 20/50 • Support: $167.84
Momentum constructive; buy-the-dip near 20-50MA.
🔁 Relative Strength
A
vs QQQ: Strong Outperform
(1.189x)
Stock: 49.1% • QQQ: 25.4%
Strong tech outperformance.
🧪 Setup Performance
A-
Win Rate: 82.0% • Avg Gain: 6.7%
Median Hold: 11.0d • Max DD: -2.7%
Favourable skew with quick resolution.
🤖 ML Signal Forecast
A
7d: 67.0% ↗ • 21d: 72.0% ↗ • 60d: 62.0% ↔
Bias: Bullish • Confidence: High
Short-term upside odds improving.
Flow & Sentiment Cluster
🌊 Sentiment Proxy
Neut
Score: 51.9
• Neutral
RSI: 53.6 • 3d: 1.02%
Net buying in blocks; shorts drifting lower.
📰 Market Sentiment
B
Analyst: 62.0% Buy • Retail: 52.0% bull
News: +0.4.0 (7d) • Social: +0.1.05
Constructive, not euphoric.
📉 Volatility Forecast
B+
HV(20d): 21.7% • HV(60d): 18.7%
Expected Move: ±1.1% / day
Calm tape supports staged entries.
Fundamental & Valuation Cluster
💰 Valuation Analysis
B
P/E (TTM): 18.7 • P/B: 3.4
Div Yield: 4.2% • Fair Value: $168.0
Slight premium to blended FV; yield cushions drawdowns.
🧮 Quant Composite
B+
Score: 67.0/100
Val 21.0 • Qual 18.0 • Growth 14.0 • Mom 18.0 • Regime 6.0
Quality-income tilt with improving momentum.
🏛️ Capital Structure
A-
ROE: 12.7% • D/E: 0.6
Cash/Debt: 3.3x • ROIC: 10.7%
Strong balance sheet with efficient capital allocation.
📥 Insider & Dividend
A-
Director Transactions (90d): Small net sell
Div Safety: A (coverage 1.4x)
Dividend well-covered; insider flows not material.
Risk Cluster
⚠️ Risk Assessment
B
Market 52.0%, Valuation 32.0%, Fundamentals 16.0%
Composite: 48.0/100 — Moderate
Macro/sector beta the key driver; valuation premium second.
🛰️ Risk Monitor Hooks
A-
Buffett Indicator: 136.7%
VIX: 15.7 • Market Regime: Neutral
Low-vol regime; breadth softening warrants vigilance.
🔥 Scenario Analysis
B+
Bear: $163.0 (20%) • Base: $178.0 (55%) • Bull: $198.0 (25%)
R:R: 2.0:1
Mildly asymmetric to upside if breadth stabilises.
Action Zone
Entry Zone
Pattern Trigger Zone
$186.3
Above breakout level
Position Size
3.0-4.0%
Entry Probability (3d)
60.0%
Historical R/R
2.0:1
Pattern Win Rate: 80.0%
Targets & Upside
Pattern Target 1
$198.91
12.6% upside
Pattern Target 2
$206.7
17.0% upside
Expected Timeframe
13.0-19.0 days
Risk Management
Pattern Stop
$162.42
Pattern invalidation
Max Risk
9.0%
Risk-Reward
2.0:1
📅 Upcoming Catalysts — 3 Events
2025-08-22.0
🔴 High
Q2 Earnings Release
Revenue, EPS, and forward guidance. Expected volatility: ±10.0%
2025-09-6.0
🟠 Medium
Sector Conference
Management presentation and Q&A. Potential guidance updates
2025-09-21.0
🟢 Low
Ex-Dividend Date
Quarterly dividend of $1.17. Price adjustment expected
Sector Context:
Sector 0.6% today • Avg Daily Volume: $277.0M • Last Updated: 2025-09-22 09:45 UTC