📊 Analysis Engine

🟢 BUY

Bias: Bullish momentum with confirmed breakout

Trigger: Entry active above $809.52

Catalysts: Dividend Ex-Date (Sep 24) Product Event (Oct 15)

Fusion Confidence: 79.0% (Pattern 88.3800048828125% • ML 81.3800048828125% • Technical 9.3800048828125/15)

Decision Zone

Current Price

$778.38

Meta Platforms, Inc.

Fair Value

$763.0

2.0% premium

Risk Band

Moderate

Quality income play

Fusion Verdict

🟡 WAIT

Fusion 79.0% • Data Loading

Market Regime

📈 Bullish

Vol: 20.0%

Timing Window

Now Window

6.0d • 85.0%

📐 Ascending Triangle

80.0% confidence • DETECTED

Trigger

$798.71

Target 1

$841.39

Target 2

$867.78

Stop

$714.51

Expected

12d

Evidence Zone

Technical Cluster

📐 Pattern AI

80.0%

Ascending Triangle (D) — 80.0% conf

Trigger: Above $798.71

T1: $841.39, T2: $867.78

Ascending Triangle pattern with 80.0% confidence

📈 Technical Snapshot

A-

RSI: 63.0 ↑ • MACD: Bullish cross

MAs: Above 20/50 • Support: $739.46

Momentum constructive; buy-the-dip near 20-50MA.

🔁 Relative Strength

B+

vs QQQ: Outperform (1.06x)

Stock: 32.9% • QQQ: 25.4%

Outperforming tech index.

🧪 Setup Performance

A-

Win Rate: 83.0% • Avg Gain: 5.4%

Median Hold: 12.0d • Max DD: -2.4%

Favourable skew with quick resolution.

🤖 ML Signal Forecast

7d: 68.0% ↗ • 21d: 73.0% ↗ • 60d: 63.0% ↔

Bias: Bullish • Confidence: High

Short-term upside odds improving.

Flow & Sentiment Cluster

🌊 Sentiment Proxy

HOT

Score: 71.7 • HOT

RSI: 72.8 • 3d: -0.08%

Net buying in blocks; shorts drifting lower.

📰 Market Sentiment

Analyst: 63.0% Buy • Retail: 53.0% bull

News: +0.2.0 (7d) • Social: +0.0.05

Constructive, not euphoric.

📉 Volatility Forecast

B+

HV(20d): 23.4% • HV(60d): 20.4%

Expected Move: ±1.0% / day

Calm tape supports staged entries.

Fundamental & Valuation Cluster

💰 Valuation Analysis

P/E (TTM): 20.4 • P/B: 3.6

Div Yield: 3.9% • Fair Value: $739.0

Slight premium to blended FV; yield cushions drawdowns.

🧮 Quant Composite

B+

Score: 68.0/100

Val 22.0 • Qual 19.0 • Growth 15.0 • Mom 19.0 • Regime 4.0

Quality-income tilt with improving momentum.

🏛️ Capital Structure

A-

ROE: 14.4% • D/E: 0.7

Cash/Debt: 3.5x • ROIC: 12.4%

Strong balance sheet with efficient capital allocation.

📥 Insider & Dividend

A-

Director Transactions (90d): Small net sell

Div Safety: A (coverage 1.6x)

Dividend well-covered; insider flows not material.

Risk Cluster

⚠️ Risk Assessment

Market 53.0%, Valuation 33.0%, Fundamentals 17.0%

Composite: 47.0/100 — Moderate

Macro/sector beta the key driver; valuation premium second.

🛰️ Risk Monitor Hooks

A-

Buffett Indicator: 138.4%

VIX: 17.4 • Market Regime: Neutral

Low-vol regime; breadth softening warrants vigilance.

🔥 Scenario Analysis

B+

Bear: $716.0 (20%) • Base: $786.0 (55%) • Bull: $872.0 (25%)

R:R: 2.2:1

Mildly asymmetric to upside if breadth stabilises.

Action Zone

Entry Zone

Pattern Trigger Zone

$798.71

Above breakout level

Position Size

2.0-3.0%

Entry Probability (3d)

30.0%

Historical R/R

2.2:1

Pattern Win Rate: 81.0%

Targets & Upside

Pattern Target 1

$841.39

8.1% upside

Pattern Target 2

$867.78

11.5% upside

Expected Timeframe

14.0-20.0 days

Risk Management

Pattern Stop

$714.51

Pattern invalidation

Max Risk

10.0%

Risk-Reward

2.2:1

📅 Upcoming Catalysts — 3 Events

2025-08-23.0

🔴 High

Q2 Earnings Release

Revenue, EPS, and forward guidance. Expected volatility: ±11.0%

2025-09-7.0

🟠 Medium

Sector Conference

Management presentation and Q&A. Potential guidance updates

2025-09-22.0

🟢 Low

Ex-Dividend Date

Quarterly dividend of $1.28. Price adjustment expected

Sector Context:

Sector 1.1% today • Avg Daily Volume: $278.0M • Last Updated: 2025-09-22 12:33 UTC