📊 Analysis Engine

🟢 BUY

Bias: Bullish momentum with confirmed breakout

Trigger: Entry active above $622.48

Catalysts: Dividend Ex-Date (Sep 24) Product Event (Oct 15)

Fusion Confidence: 87.0% (Pattern 88.53497314453125% • ML 81.53497314453125% • Technical 13.53497314453125/15)

QQQ

$598.53

Invesco QQQ Trust

Last Updated: 13:47 UTC

Decision Zone

Current Price

$598.53

Invesco QQQ Trust

Fair Value

$587.0

2.0% premium

Risk Band

Moderate

Quality income play

Fusion Verdict

🟡 WAIT

Fusion 87.0% • Data Loading

Market Regime

📈 Bullish

Vol: 20.0%

Timing Window

Now Window

7.0d • 86.0%

📐 Bearish Engulfing

65.0% confidence • DETECTED

Trigger

$606.05

Target 1

$631.09

Target 2

$646.56

Stop

$553.94

Expected

11d

Evidence Zone

Technical Cluster

📐 Pattern AI

65.0%

Bearish Engulfing (D) — 65.0% conf

Trigger: Above $606.05

T1: $631.09, T2: $646.56

Bearish Engulfing pattern with 65.0% confidence

📈 Technical Snapshot

A-

RSI: 84.0 ↑ • MACD: Bullish cross

MAs: Above 20/50 • Support: $568.61

Momentum constructive; buy-the-dip near 20-50MA.

🔁 Relative Strength

vs QQQ: In-line (1.0x)

Stock: 22.1% • QQQ: 22.1%

Tracking with market.

🧪 Setup Performance

A-

Win Rate: 84.0% • Avg Gain: 5.5%

Median Hold: 17.0d • Max DD: -2.5%

Favourable skew with quick resolution.

🤖 ML Signal Forecast

7d: 89.0% ↗ • 21d: 74.0% ↗ • 60d: 64.0% ↔

Bias: Bullish • Confidence: High

Short-term upside odds improving.

Flow & Sentiment Cluster

🌊 Sentiment Proxy

EXTR

Score: 81.9 • EXTREME HOT

RSI: 93.3 • 3d: 1.44%

Net buying in blocks; shorts drifting lower.

📰 Market Sentiment

Analyst: 64.0% Buy • Retail: 74.0% bull

News: +0.3.0 (7d) • Social: +0.1.05

Constructive, not euphoric.

📉 Volatility Forecast

B+

HV(20d): 23.5% • HV(60d): 24.5%

Expected Move: ±1.1% / day

Calm tape supports staged entries.

Fundamental & Valuation Cluster

💰 Valuation Analysis

P/E (TTM): 24.5 • P/B: 2.2

Div Yield: 4.0% • Fair Value: $569.0

Slight premium to blended FV; yield cushions drawdowns.

🧮 Quant Composite

B+

Score: 89.0/100

Val 27.0 • Qual 20.0 • Growth 16.0 • Mom 20.0 • Regime 5.0

Quality-income tilt with improving momentum.

🏛️ Capital Structure

A-

ROE: 18.5% • D/E: 0.4

Cash/Debt: 2.1x • ROIC: 12.5%

Strong balance sheet with efficient capital allocation.

📥 Insider & Dividend

A-

Director Transactions (90d): Small net sell

Div Safety: A (coverage 1.2x)

Dividend well-covered; insider flows not material.

Risk Cluster

⚠️ Risk Assessment

Market 54.0%, Valuation 34.0%, Fundamentals 22.0%

Composite: 46.0/100 — Moderate

Macro/sector beta the key driver; valuation premium second.

🛰️ Risk Monitor Hooks

A-

Buffett Indicator: 158.5%

VIX: 21.5 • Market Regime: Neutral

Low-vol regime; breadth softening warrants vigilance.

🔥 Scenario Analysis

B+

Bear: $551.0 (20%) • Base: $605.0 (55%) • Bull: $670.0 (25%)

R:R: 1.8:1

Mildly asymmetric to upside if breadth stabilises.

Action Zone

Entry Zone

Pattern Trigger Zone

$606.05

Above breakout level

Position Size

3.0-4.0%

Entry Probability (3d)

30.0%

Historical R/R

1.8:1

Pattern Win Rate: 82.0%

Targets & Upside

Pattern Target 1

$631.09

5.4% upside

Pattern Target 2

$646.56

8.0% upside

Expected Timeframe

19.0-25.0 days

Risk Management

Pattern Stop

$553.94

Pattern invalidation

Max Risk

11.0%

Risk-Reward

1.8:1

📅 Upcoming Catalysts — 3 Events

2025-08-24.0

🔴 High

Q2 Earnings Release

Revenue, EPS, and forward guidance. Expected volatility: ±12.0%

2025-09-12.0

🟠 Medium

Sector Conference

Management presentation and Q&A. Potential guidance updates

2025-09-27.0

🟢 Low

Ex-Dividend Date

Quarterly dividend of $0.63. Price adjustment expected

Sector Context:

Sector 1.2% today • Avg Daily Volume: $299.0M • Last Updated: 2025-09-22 13:47 UTC