📊 Analysis Engine

🟡 WAIT FOR CONFIRMATION

Bias: Bullish but pattern confirmation pending

Trigger: Breakout > $814.22 upgrades to 🟢 BUY

Catalysts: Dividend Ex-Date (Sep 24) Product Event (Oct 15)

Fusion Confidence: 73.0% (Pattern 62.90277099609375% • ML 70.90277099609375% • Technical 13.90277099609375/15)

Decision Zone

Current Price

$782.9

Meta Platforms, Inc.

Fair Value

$767.0

2.0% premium

Risk Band

Moderate

Quality income play

Fusion Verdict

🟡 WAIT

Fusion 73.0% • Data Loading

Market Regime

📈 Bullish

Vol: 20.0%

Timing Window

Now Window

6.0d • 75.0%

📐 Ascending Triangle

70.0% confidence • DETECTED

Trigger

$798.71

Target 1

$841.39

Target 2

$867.78

Stop

$714.51

Expected

12d

Evidence Zone

Technical Cluster

📐 Pattern AI

70.0%

Ascending Triangle (D) — 70.0% conf

Trigger: Above $798.71

T1: $841.39, T2: $867.78

Ascending Triangle pattern with 70.0% confidence

📈 Technical Snapshot

A-

RSI: 68.0 ↑ • MACD: Bullish cross

MAs: Above 20/50 • Support: $743.76

Momentum constructive; buy-the-dip near 20-50MA.

🔁 Relative Strength

vs QQQ: In-line (1.037x)

Stock: 26.6% • QQQ: 22.1%

Tracking with market.

🧪 Setup Performance

A-

Win Rate: 68.0% • Avg Gain: 6.9%

Median Hold: 17.0d • Max DD: -2.9%

Favourable skew with quick resolution.

🤖 ML Signal Forecast

7d: 73.0% ↗ • 21d: 58.0% ↗ • 60d: 53.0% ↔

Bias: Bullish • Confidence: High

Short-term upside odds improving.

Flow & Sentiment Cluster

🌊 Sentiment Proxy

HOT

Score: 75.0 • HOT

RSI: 77.2 • 3d: 0.93%

Net buying in blocks; shorts drifting lower.

📰 Market Sentiment

Analyst: 48.0% Buy • Retail: 58.0% bull

News: +0.4.0 (7d) • Social: +0.1.05

Constructive, not euphoric.

📉 Volatility Forecast

B+

HV(20d): 17.9% • HV(60d): 24.9%

Expected Move: ±1.3% / day

Calm tape supports staged entries.

Fundamental & Valuation Cluster

💰 Valuation Analysis

P/E (TTM): 24.9 • P/B: 3.6

Div Yield: 4.4% • Fair Value: $744.0

Slight premium to blended FV; yield cushions drawdowns.

🧮 Quant Composite

B+

Score: 73.0/100

Val 27.0 • Qual 18.0 • Growth 15.0 • Mom 18.0 • Regime 6.0

Quality-income tilt with improving momentum.

🏛️ Capital Structure

A-

ROE: 18.9% • D/E: 0.4

Cash/Debt: 3.5x • ROIC: 10.9%

Strong balance sheet with efficient capital allocation.

📥 Insider & Dividend

A-

Director Transactions (90d): Small net sell

Div Safety: A (coverage 1.6x)

Dividend well-covered; insider flows not material.

Risk Cluster

⚠️ Risk Assessment

Market 43.0%, Valuation 28.0%, Fundamentals 22.0%

Composite: 72.0/100 — Moderate

Macro/sector beta the key driver; valuation premium second.

🛰️ Risk Monitor Hooks

A-

Buffett Indicator: 142.9%

VIX: 21.9 • Market Regime: Neutral

Low-vol regime; breadth softening warrants vigilance.

🔥 Scenario Analysis

B+

Bear: $720.0 (20%) • Base: $791.0 (55%) • Bull: $877.0 (25%)

R:R: 2.2:1

Mildly asymmetric to upside if breadth stabilises.

Action Zone

Entry Zone

Pattern Trigger Zone

$798.71

Above breakout level

Position Size

3.0-4.0%

Entry Probability (3d)

30.0%

Historical R/R

2.2:1

Pattern Win Rate: 71.0%

Targets & Upside

Pattern Target 1

$841.39

7.5% upside

Pattern Target 2

$867.78

10.8% upside

Expected Timeframe

19.0-25.0 days

Risk Management

Pattern Stop

$714.51

Pattern invalidation

Max Risk

11.0%

Risk-Reward

2.2:1

📅 Upcoming Catalysts — 3 Events

2025-08-18.0

🔴 High

Q2 Earnings Release

Revenue, EPS, and forward guidance. Expected volatility: ±11.0%

2025-09-12.0

🟠 Medium

Sector Conference

Management presentation and Q&A. Potential guidance updates

2025-09-27.0

🟢 Low

Ex-Dividend Date

Quarterly dividend of $1.0. Price adjustment expected

Sector Context:

Sector 0.8% today • Avg Daily Volume: $283.0M • Last Updated: 2025-09-22 13:44 UTC