📊 Analysis Engine
Powered by Fusion Trade Engine™ • Last Updated: 2025-09-22 14:54 UTC
🟡 WAIT FOR CONFIRMATION
Bias: Bullish but pattern confirmation pending
Trigger: Breakout > $282.47 upgrades to 🟢 BUY
Catalysts:
Dividend Ex-Date (Sep 24)
Product Event (Oct 15)
Fusion Confidence:
73.0%
(Pattern 61.6099853515625% • ML 69.6099853515625% • Technical 14.6099853515625/15)
IBM
$271.61
International Business Machine...
Last Updated: 14:54 UTC
Decision Zone
Powered by Fusion Trade Engine™
Current Price
$271.61
International Business Machines Corporation
Fair Value
$266.0
2.0% premium
Risk Band
Moderate
Quality income play
Fusion Verdict
🟡 WAIT
Fusion 73.0% • Data Loading
Market Regime
📈 Bullish
Vol: 20.0%
Timing Window
Now Window
5.0d • 74.0%
📐 Ascending Triangle
70.0% confidence • DETECTED
Trigger
$274.33
Target 1
$294.94
Target 2
$307.69
Stop
$235.87
Expected
14d
Evidence Zone
Technical Cluster
📐 Pattern AI
70.0%
Ascending Triangle (D) — 70.0% conf
Trigger: Above $274.33
T1: $294.94, T2: $307.69
Ascending Triangle pattern with 70.0% confidence
📈 Technical Snapshot
A-
RSI: 77.0 ↑ • MACD: Bullish cross
MAs: Above 20/50 • Support: $258.03
Momentum constructive; buy-the-dip near 20-50MA.
🔁 Relative Strength
B
vs QQQ: Underperform
(0.905x)
Stock: 10.8% • QQQ: 22.5%
Tracking with market.
🧪 Setup Performance
A-
Win Rate: 77.0% • Avg Gain: 5.6%
Median Hold: 18.0d • Max DD: -3.6%
Favourable skew with quick resolution.
🤖 ML Signal Forecast
A
7d: 87.0% ↗ • 21d: 67.0% ↗ • 60d: 52.0% ↔
Bias: Bullish • Confidence: High
Short-term upside odds improving.
Flow & Sentiment Cluster
🌊 Sentiment Proxy
EXTR
Score: 80.6
• EXTREME HOT
RSI: 86.1 • 3d: 4.84%
Net buying in blocks; shorts drifting lower.
📰 Market Sentiment
B
Analyst: 57.0% Buy • Retail: 72.0% bull
News: +0.3.0 (7d) • Social: +0.2.05
Constructive, not euphoric.
📉 Volatility Forecast
B+
HV(20d): 16.6% • HV(60d): 25.6%
Expected Move: ±1.2% / day
Calm tape supports staged entries.
Fundamental & Valuation Cluster
💰 Valuation Analysis
B
P/E (TTM): 25.6 • P/B: 2.3
Div Yield: 5.1% • Fair Value: $258.0
Slight premium to blended FV; yield cushions drawdowns.
🧮 Quant Composite
B+
Score: 87.0/100
Val 28.0 • Qual 17.0 • Growth 14.0 • Mom 17.0 • Regime 5.0
Quality-income tilt with improving momentum.
🏛️ Capital Structure
A-
ROE: 19.6% • D/E: 0.3
Cash/Debt: 2.2x • ROIC: 9.6%
Strong balance sheet with efficient capital allocation.
📥 Insider & Dividend
A-
Director Transactions (90d): Small net sell
Div Safety: A (coverage 1.3x)
Dividend well-covered; insider flows not material.
Risk Cluster
⚠️ Risk Assessment
B
Market 42.0%, Valuation 27.0%, Fundamentals 23.0%
Composite: 73.0/100 — Moderate
Macro/sector beta the key driver; valuation premium second.
🛰️ Risk Monitor Hooks
A-
Buffett Indicator: 156.6%
VIX: 22.6 • Market Regime: Neutral
Low-vol regime; breadth softening warrants vigilance.
🔥 Scenario Analysis
B+
Bear: $250.0 (20%) • Base: $274.0 (55%) • Bull: $304.0 (25%)
R:R: 1.9:1
Mildly asymmetric to upside if breadth stabilises.
Action Zone
Entry Zone
Pattern Trigger Zone
$274.33
Above breakout level
Position Size
4.0-5.0%
Entry Probability (3d)
30.0%
Historical R/R
1.9:1
Pattern Win Rate: 70.0%
Targets & Upside
Pattern Target 1
$294.94
8.6% upside
Pattern Target 2
$307.69
13.3% upside
Expected Timeframe
20.0-26.0 days
Risk Management
Pattern Stop
$235.87
Pattern invalidation
Max Risk
12.0%
Risk-Reward
1.9:1
📅 Upcoming Catalysts — 3 Events
2025-08-17.0
🔴 High
Q2 Earnings Release
Revenue, EPS, and forward guidance. Expected volatility: ±10.0%
2025-09-13.0
🟠 Medium
Sector Conference
Management presentation and Q&A. Potential guidance updates
2025-09-28.0
🟢 Low
Ex-Dividend Date
Quarterly dividend of $0.91. Price adjustment expected
Sector Context:
Sector 0.7% today • Avg Daily Volume: $272.0M • Last Updated: 2025-09-22 14:54 UTC