📊 Analysis Engine

🟡 WAIT FOR CONFIRMATION

Bias: Bullish but pattern confirmation pending

Trigger: Breakout > $167.77 upgrades to 🟢 BUY

Catalysts: Dividend Ex-Date (Sep 24) Product Event (Oct 15)

Fusion Confidence: 70.0% (Pattern 71.31979370117188% • ML 79.31979370117188% • Technical 8.319793701171875/15)

AMD

$161.32

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.

Last Updated: 14:57 UTC

Decision Zone

Current Price

$161.32

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.

Fair Value

$158.0

2.0% premium

Risk Band

Moderate

Quality income play

Fusion Verdict

🟡 WAIT

Fusion 70.0% • Data Loading

Market Regime

📈 Bullish

Vol: 20.0%

Timing Window

Now Window

4.0d • 83.0%

📐 Ascending Triangle

70.0% confidence • DETECTED

Trigger

$172.7

Target 1

$186.15

Target 2

$194.47

Stop

$147.73

Expected

14d

Evidence Zone

Technical Cluster

📐 Pattern AI

70.0%

Ascending Triangle (D) — 70.0% conf

Trigger: Above $172.7

T1: $186.15, T2: $194.47

Ascending Triangle pattern with 70.0% confidence

📈 Technical Snapshot

A-

RSI: 46.0 ↑ • MACD: Bullish cross

MAs: Above 20/50 • Support: $153.25

Momentum constructive; buy-the-dip near 20-50MA.

🔁 Relative Strength

vs QQQ: Strong Outperform (1.157x)

Stock: 41.7% • QQQ: 22.5%

Strong tech outperformance.

🧪 Setup Performance

A-

Win Rate: 66.0% • Avg Gain: 6.3%

Median Hold: 11.0d • Max DD: -3.3%

Favourable skew with quick resolution.

🤖 ML Signal Forecast

7d: 76.0% ↗ • 21d: 56.0% ↗ • 60d: 61.0% ↔

Bias: Bullish • Confidence: High

Short-term upside odds improving.

Flow & Sentiment Cluster

🌊 Sentiment Proxy

Neut

Score: 48.4 • Neutral

RSI: 48.6 • 3d: 1.36%

Net buying in blocks; shorts drifting lower.

📰 Market Sentiment

Analyst: 46.0% Buy • Retail: 61.0% bull

News: +0.3.0 (7d) • Social: +0.1.05

Constructive, not euphoric.

📉 Volatility Forecast

B+

HV(20d): 16.3% • HV(60d): 19.3%

Expected Move: ±1.3% / day

Calm tape supports staged entries.

Fundamental & Valuation Cluster

💰 Valuation Analysis

P/E (TTM): 19.3 • P/B: 3.0

Div Yield: 4.8% • Fair Value: $153.0

Slight premium to blended FV; yield cushions drawdowns.

🧮 Quant Composite

B+

Score: 76.0/100

Val 21.0 • Qual 20.0 • Growth 13.0 • Mom 20.0 • Regime 5.0

Quality-income tilt with improving momentum.

🏛️ Capital Structure

A-

ROE: 13.3% • D/E: 0.4

Cash/Debt: 2.9x • ROIC: 13.3%

Strong balance sheet with efficient capital allocation.

📥 Insider & Dividend

A-

Director Transactions (90d): Small net sell

Div Safety: A (coverage 1.5x)

Dividend well-covered; insider flows not material.

Risk Cluster

⚠️ Risk Assessment

Market 51.0%, Valuation 26.0%, Fundamentals 16.0%

Composite: 64.0/100 — Moderate

Macro/sector beta the key driver; valuation premium second.

🛰️ Risk Monitor Hooks

A-

Buffett Indicator: 146.3%

VIX: 16.3 • Market Regime: Neutral

Low-vol regime; breadth softening warrants vigilance.

🔥 Scenario Analysis

B+

Bear: $148.0 (20%) • Base: $163.0 (55%) • Bull: $181.0 (25%)

R:R: 2.1:1

Mildly asymmetric to upside if breadth stabilises.

Action Zone

Entry Zone

Pattern Trigger Zone

$172.7

Above breakout level

Position Size

3.0-4.0%

Entry Probability (3d)

60.0%

Historical R/R

2.1:1

Pattern Win Rate: 79.0%

Targets & Upside

Pattern Target 1

$186.15

15.4% upside

Pattern Target 2

$194.47

20.5% upside

Expected Timeframe

13.0-19.0 days

Risk Management

Pattern Stop

$147.73

Pattern invalidation

Max Risk

9.0%

Risk-Reward

2.1:1

📅 Upcoming Catalysts — 3 Events

2025-08-16.0

🔴 High

Q2 Earnings Release

Revenue, EPS, and forward guidance. Expected volatility: ±9.0%

2025-09-6.0

🟠 Medium

Sector Conference

Management presentation and Q&A. Potential guidance updates

2025-09-21.0

🟢 Low

Ex-Dividend Date

Quarterly dividend of $1.02. Price adjustment expected

Sector Context:

Sector 0.8% today • Avg Daily Volume: $261.0M • Last Updated: 2025-09-22 14:57 UTC