📊 Analysis Engine

🟡 WAIT FOR CONFIRMATION

Bias: Bullish but pattern confirmation pending

Trigger: Breakout > $255.32 upgrades to 🟢 BUY

Catalysts: Dividend Ex-Date (Sep 24) Product Event (Oct 15)

Fusion Confidence: 73.0% (Pattern 65.5% • ML 73.5% • Technical 12.5/15)

AAPL

$245.5

Apple Inc.

Last Updated: 10:57 UTC

Decision Zone

Current Price

$245.5

Apple Inc.

Fair Value

$241.0

2.0% premium

Risk Band

Moderate

Quality income play

Fusion Verdict

🟡 WAIT

Fusion 73.0% • Data Loading

Market Regime

📈 Bullish

Vol: 20.0%

Timing Window

Now Window

4.0d • 78.0%

📐 Ascending Triangle

80.0% confidence • DETECTED

Trigger

$248.76

Target 1

$262.12

Target 2

$270.37

Stop

$222.44

Expected

12d

Evidence Zone

Technical Cluster

📐 Pattern AI

80.0%

Ascending Triangle (D) — 80.0% conf

Trigger: Above $248.76

T1: $262.12, T2: $270.37

Ascending Triangle pattern with 80.0% confidence

📈 Technical Snapshot

A-

RSI: 50.0 ↑ • MACD: Bullish cross

MAs: Above 20/50 • Support: $233.22

Momentum constructive; buy-the-dip near 20-50MA.

📊 Gap Analysis

1.0%

Continuation Gap • Add CTN

Target: $253.17 • Stop: $241.67

Trend continuation signal.

🧪 Setup Performance

A-

Win Rate: 70.0% • Avg Gain: 6.5%

Median Hold: 16.0d • Max DD: -3.5%

Favourable skew with quick resolution.

🤖 ML Signal Forecast

7d: 86.0% ↗ • 21d: 60.0% ↗ • 60d: 56.0% ↔

Bias: Bullish • Confidence: High

Short-term upside odds improving.

Flow & Sentiment Cluster

🌊 Sentiment Proxy

HOT

Score: 76.8 • HOT

RSI: 64.4 • 3d: 3.09%

Net buying in blocks; shorts drifting lower.

📰 Market Sentiment

Analyst: 50.0% Buy • Retail: 70.0% bull

News: +0.4.0 (7d) • Social: +0.2.05

Constructive, not euphoric.

📉 Volatility Forecast

B+

HV(20d): 20.5% • HV(60d): 23.5%

Expected Move: ±0.9% / day

Calm tape supports staged entries.

Fundamental & Valuation Cluster

💰 Valuation Analysis

P/E (TTM): 23.5 • P/B: 3.2

Div Yield: 5.0% • Fair Value: $233.0

Slight premium to blended FV; yield cushions drawdowns.

🧮 Quant Composite

B+

Score: 86.0/100

Val 26.0 • Qual 20.0 • Growth 12.0 • Mom 20.0 • Regime 6.0

Quality-income tilt with improving momentum.

🏛️ Capital Structure

A-

ROE: 17.5% • D/E: 0.6

Cash/Debt: 3.1x • ROIC: 13.5%

Strong balance sheet with efficient capital allocation.

📥 Insider & Dividend

A-

Director Transactions (90d): Small net sell

Div Safety: A (coverage 1.2x)

Dividend well-covered; insider flows not material.

Risk Cluster

⚠️ Risk Assessment

Market 46.0%, Valuation 30.0%, Fundamentals 20.0%

Composite: 70.0/100 — Moderate

Macro/sector beta the key driver; valuation premium second.

🛰️ Risk Monitor Hooks

A-

Buffett Indicator: 155.5%

VIX: 20.5 • Market Regime: Neutral

Low-vol regime; breadth softening warrants vigilance.

🔥 Scenario Analysis

B+

Bear: $226.0 (20%) • Base: $248.0 (55%) • Bull: $275.0 (25%)

R:R: 1.8:1

Mildly asymmetric to upside if breadth stabilises.

Action Zone

Entry Zone

Pattern Trigger Zone

$248.76

Above breakout level

Position Size

4.0-4.0%

Entry Probability (3d)

60.0%

Historical R/R

1.8:1

Pattern Win Rate: 74.0%

Targets & Upside

Pattern Target 1

$262.12

6.8% upside

Pattern Target 2

$270.37

10.1% upside

Expected Timeframe

18.0-24.0 days

Risk Management

Pattern Stop

$222.44

Pattern invalidation

Max Risk

10.0%

Risk-Reward

1.8:1

📅 Upcoming Catalysts — 3 Events

2025-08-20.0

🔴 High

Q2 Earnings Release

Revenue, EPS, and forward guidance. Expected volatility: ±8.0%

2025-09-10.0

🟠 Medium

Sector Conference

Management presentation and Q&A. Potential guidance updates

2025-09-26.0

🟢 Low

Ex-Dividend Date

Quarterly dividend of $1.2. Price adjustment expected

Sector Context:

Sector 1.0% today • Avg Daily Volume: $246.0M • Last Updated: 2025-09-22 10:57 UTC