📊 Analysis Engine
Powered by Fusion Trade Engine™ • Last Updated: 2025-09-22 11:38 UTC
🟢 BUY
Bias: Bullish momentum with confirmed breakout
Trigger: Entry active above $538.65
Catalysts:
Dividend Ex-Date (Sep 24)
Product Event (Oct 15)
Fusion Confidence:
75.0%
(Pattern 67.92999267578125% • ML 75.92999267578125% • Technical 12.92999267578125/15)
MSFT
$517.93
Microsoft Corporation
Last Updated: 11:38 UTC
Decision Zone
Powered by Fusion Trade Engine™
Current Price
$517.93
Microsoft Corporation
Fair Value
$508.0
2.0% premium
Risk Band
Moderate
Quality income play
Fusion Verdict
🟡 WAIT
Fusion 75.0% • Data Loading
Market Regime
📈 Bullish
Vol: 20.0%
Timing Window
Now Window
6.0d • 80.0%
📐 Bullish Engulfing
65.0% confidence • DETECTED
Trigger
$524.49
Target 1
$541.14
Target 2
$551.42
Stop
$487.45
Expected
10d
Evidence Zone
Technical Cluster
📐 Pattern AI
65.0%
Bullish Engulfing (D) — 65.0% conf
Trigger: Above $524.49
T1: $541.14, T2: $551.42
Bullish Engulfing pattern with 65.0% confidence
📈 Technical Snapshot
A-
RSI: 83.0 ↑ • MACD: Bullish cross
MAs: Above 20/50 • Support: $492.03
Momentum constructive; buy-the-dip near 20-50MA.
🔁 Relative Strength
B+
vs QQQ: Outperform
(1.072x)
Stock: 34.4% • QQQ: 25.4%
Outperforming tech index.
🧪 Setup Performance
A-
Win Rate: 83.0% • Avg Gain: 5.9%
Median Hold: 16.0d • Max DD: -3.9%
Favourable skew with quick resolution.
🤖 ML Signal Forecast
A
7d: 83.0% ↗ • 21d: 73.0% ↗ • 60d: 58.0% ↔
Bias: Bullish • Confidence: High
Short-term upside odds improving.
Flow & Sentiment Cluster
🌊 Sentiment Proxy
Warm
Score: 65.2
• Warm
RSI: 60.0 • 3d: 1.75%
Net buying in blocks; shorts drifting lower.
📰 Market Sentiment
B
Analyst: 63.0% Buy • Retail: 68.0% bull
News: +0.3.0 (7d) • Social: +0.2.05
Constructive, not euphoric.
📉 Volatility Forecast
B+
HV(20d): 22.9% • HV(60d): 23.9%
Expected Move: ±0.9% / day
Calm tape supports staged entries.
Fundamental & Valuation Cluster
💰 Valuation Analysis
B
P/E (TTM): 23.9 • P/B: 2.6
Div Yield: 5.4% • Fair Value: $492.0
Slight premium to blended FV; yield cushions drawdowns.
🧮 Quant Composite
B+
Score: 83.0/100
Val 26.0 • Qual 17.0 • Growth 15.0 • Mom 17.0 • Regime 5.0
Quality-income tilt with improving momentum.
🏛️ Capital Structure
A-
ROE: 17.9% • D/E: 0.6
Cash/Debt: 2.5x • ROIC: 9.9%
Strong balance sheet with efficient capital allocation.
📥 Insider & Dividend
A-
Director Transactions (90d): Small net sell
Div Safety: A (coverage 1.6x)
Dividend well-covered; insider flows not material.
Risk Cluster
⚠️ Risk Assessment
B
Market 48.0%, Valuation 33.0%, Fundamentals 21.0%
Composite: 67.0/100 — Moderate
Macro/sector beta the key driver; valuation premium second.
🛰️ Risk Monitor Hooks
A-
Buffett Indicator: 152.9%
VIX: 20.9 • Market Regime: Neutral
Low-vol regime; breadth softening warrants vigilance.
🔥 Scenario Analysis
B+
Bear: $476.0 (20%) • Base: $523.0 (55%) • Bull: $580.0 (25%)
R:R: 2.2:1
Mildly asymmetric to upside if breadth stabilises.
Action Zone
Entry Zone
Pattern Trigger Zone
$524.49
Above breakout level
Position Size
4.0-5.0%
Entry Probability (3d)
60.0%
Historical R/R
2.2:1
Pattern Win Rate: 76.0%
Targets & Upside
Pattern Target 1
$541.14
4.5% upside
Pattern Target 2
$551.42
6.5% upside
Expected Timeframe
18.0-24.0 days
Risk Management
Pattern Stop
$487.45
Pattern invalidation
Max Risk
10.0%
Risk-Reward
2.2:1
📅 Upcoming Catalysts — 3 Events
2025-08-23.0
🔴 High
Q2 Earnings Release
Revenue, EPS, and forward guidance. Expected volatility: ±11.0%
2025-09-11.0
🟠 Medium
Sector Conference
Management presentation and Q&A. Potential guidance updates
2025-09-26.0
🟢 Low
Ex-Dividend Date
Quarterly dividend of $0.83. Price adjustment expected
Sector Context:
Sector 1.0% today • Avg Daily Volume: $218.0M • Last Updated: 2025-09-22 11:38 UTC